Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Hedging bets on the soon to be announced Apple HDTV

Since the admission of 'I've finally cracked it' in relation to a future Apple HDTV product (iTV) appeared in Walter Isaacson's biography of Jobs, speculation has been rife on what that product might look like and the rationale behind it.  Several articles make interesting points in terms of what that product and service would look like.  The premise for all of them is interesting as Apple are known only to enter markets where they can add tremendous value and in doing so, they disrupt the natural business model for the incumbents for that product.

I still have an v1 Apple TV.  Like other v1 users who have kept their, I think its a well built and easy to use set top product for accessing audio and video in the 'walled garden' ecosystem of Apple protected stuff.  The v2 product, while simplified, essentially removed a number of features which original v1 users probably felt too important to lose.  For example, being able to store your content locally on the device instead of re-streaming your content every time.

In projecting what I think the future iTV will be, I decided to look at this across the following areas.

Starting point — the evolutionary approach
While revolutionary in terms of Apple's take on introducing a new product category, I also see it as a piece in the Apple jigsaw of products, fitting into now and future Mac and iOS product roadmap releases.  This is predicated that on seeing it, you would intuitively know how to use it. In that situation, it helps me predict what is going to be baked into the first version.

Hardware
Most, if not all Apple hardware products, are an object of desire and beauty.  They impute total quality inside and out. I would see the current display technologies such as backlit LED technology and with IPS for wide viewing angle support as a minimum feature in terms of the HDTV.  1080p will be a standard for a v1 unit.  AirPort wireless N wifi and a Gigabit LAN interface would be expected as standard.  Sensibly, I expect a border less picture supporting 16x9 or possible 16x10 displays.  Some articles have suggested Apple could go even wider to accommodate the side parts of the screen to add messaging and other types of  interactions with either Siri voice or iPad airplay mirroring or something else entirely.

Through the software and content layers below, I'd see a need for local storage within iTV.  Looking at 64-128Gb.  A potential game changer for some of the suggestions I'm about to make.

What will be the brains of this device? Perhaps a new piece of silicon which drives super graphics and on-board computing capability.  It is very much within their capability to produce an engine we have yet to see.  If anything, it will be the evolutionary step of what we've been seeing in their mobile devices.

HDMI integration – not so sure. It would be typical of Apple to ignore HD connectivity standards and go for something on the new innovation curve of device connectivity. I'm not aware of what that technology would be at the moment, so I would discount that and stick with the latest version of HDMI.

Software
It should come as no surprise that iOS naturally fits as the software OS for this new category of device in the Apple world of things.   Web connected and in seeing all other Apple services or Apple devices on your home network.  In that regard, I readily expect the iTV devices to support Airplay, FaceTime and other standard iOS features.

Interface
To ensure a "magical" experience for the user, there will be 3 types of input for the iTV
  • An updated Apple TV remote (usual on screen menus and keyboards)
  • iOS device input via the iPad or iPhone via Airplay
  • An internet connected use of Siri voice activation to directly control all key aspects of the set
Siri and iOS devices are the disruptor's here.  A standard remote is there from a legacy standpoint for customers who may not have iOS devices at the point of purchase of a HDTV.

Content
Here's the bit of the jigsaw where it becomes really interesting. In terms of hardware, software and even interface, it's essentially another form of glorified Apple monitor (albeit a great one).  The key here is to provide a real alternative to customers who want to switch away from traditional  cable/satellite feeds and use iTV for all key content in the future  This is the biggest challenge for Apple in terms of disruption on the market place.

As I've mentioned before, the key success factor here, is that despite being a TV, through the hardware and software, you would already know how to use an Apple HDTV.  This helps us be predictive on the final product and what's potentially baked into it.

  • TV — expect new content deals in place with providers (at least in the US initially) to stream content.  This would need to be in place with all the major networks. If they can pull this off and have also have it baked into iTunes, this would have huge reverberations in the market. 
  • Movies — possibly similar deals with providers via iTunes
  • Podcasts — nothing new, as would be expected
  • Apps — a new iOS development platform for apps with TVcontent to be published via the Apps Store to access free and paid vide content.  This ties the existing ecosystem across Mac and iOS devices into iTV.
  • Games — either via Airplay mirroring from an iOS device or better still, apps built for iTV using the computing and graphical capability of the set.  In one move, Apple threaten
  • Connectivity to other devices — HDMI connectivity should be in place for your Blu-Ray, Satellite or Cable boxes and other devices.  Without HDMI slots, this would be limiting in appeal for the consumer.


The final package
So a Siri voice activated, 40-50" super thin LED display which runs 1080p, powered by a super powerful piece a silicon which has a high speed LAN and WAN connection.  It has iTunes baked in and has an app layer to access video and gaming applications to take advantage of the on-board computing capability and local storage.  It will run using less power than a conventional LCD/LED panels.

After all that, would I buy one?  Yes, if a) they can sign deals for content such as Sky in Europe and either  match or exceed the value proposition of Sky and other providers and b) by switching to on-demand TV with streams, downloads and apps - you only pay 20-30% more overall for subscribed content.  Despite the premium droolness of it all, it still needs to make financial sense to your average consumer.  Mind you, when you're Apple and go for the higher-end market for things, that approach can go out of the window and you still make pots of money.



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